China has more solar capacity online than coal capacity. It’s a remarkable milestone, but the fossil fuel still generates far more electricity than solar does.
By Dan McCarthy, Canary News, September 4, 2026
Solar is beating coal in China. Sorta. But also not at all.
Let me explain.
An eye-popping new chart made the rounds this week. It shows a line representing solar energy in China rising improbably over the last decade, until it finally overtakes another line representing the nation’s vast coal fleet. One article featuring this chart came with the following headline: “Solar surpasses coal in China, becomes top power source.”
This is exactly the type of chart a person concerned about climate change could hope to see — one that would have defied the imagination of analysts and onlookers even a few years ago. It proves that the nation has been taking serious steps to clean up its coal-heavy grid, contrary to those who use China’s enormous emissions to justify climate complacency elsewhere.
But it’s also a bit misleading. While there’s nothing wrong with the data — solar really has overtaken coal in terms of capacity — the story is more complicated than a tidy chart can express.
To understand why, you’ll have to bear with some technical definitions. Capacity is the key word here: It’s a measure of the absolute maximum output a power plant can produce. But plants don’t run at full tilt, and experts use a metric called capacity factor to express how much electricity a facility actually produces compared with its potential output.
In China, coal has an average capacity factor of around 50%. Solar’s is only 14%
________________________________________________
Daily energy and environment updates. Free 30-day subscription