We’ve been in lockdown for a month. Why are so many still testing positive for coronavirus?
By Amanda Hoover and Payton Guion | NJ.com
Stay at home. Slow the spread. Flatten the curve.
These three-word phrases have been thrown at us all for weeks, from electronic traffic message boards, from local leaders and from New Jersey’s governor at his daily briefings on the coronavirus. They’ve become our collective mantras, reminding us we’re not staying cooped up in our houses or apartments just for ourselves, but for our neighbors, for our state.
But now that we’re a month in, what do we have to show for it? Coronavirus cases continue to increase and the death toll climbs higher still. Murphy announced 2,625 more confirmed cases on Wednesday, bringing the total in New Jersey to 71,030. Another 351 people have died from complications related to the virus. In total, 3,156 people in the state have died from it.
“We have asked you to make tremendous sacrifices with us in this fight,” Gov. Phil Murphy said at his daily news conference. “I know some of them seem like nuisances, but every step we have taken has been made out of sheer necessity. I promise you that.”
The news remains grim and could get worse yet. The state’s estimate of reaching peak hospitalization from the coronavirus last weekend didn’t come to pass, and now that estimate has been pushed back another 10 days, to April 25.
On March 15, New Jersey had 98 confirmed coronavirus cases. On April 15, that number stood at 71,030, a scary figure that likely is much lower than reality because New Jersey isn’t conducting widespread testing.
So why, after a month of isolation, are the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths continuing to rise?
Experts say it’s in part because the virus has a lengthy incubation period, but it also comes down to human error. Officials have urged those exposed to a coronavirus case to self-isolate for 14 days, but not everyone, particularly carriers without symptoms, took that advice when the state first instituted measures four weeks ago.
“Adherence to that order has been varied. It continues to be varied,” said Henry Raymond, a biostatistics and epidemiology professor at Rutgers School of Public Health. “We don’t necessarily know how long the incubation period is. Take two weeks off the executive order, and that might be really more of the start date for social distancing.”
Policies have gotten stricter over that time, too, now including the closures of public spaces like parks. And masks in grocery stores only became a mandate in recent days.
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